Friday, February 05, 2010

A little story about skeptisism

A friend of mine posted this rather confused polemic on his facebook page.

What I found interesting was that it finally exposes the whole climate-change-skeptic movement for what is really is - an attack on science altogether, and an attempt to contort the whole concept of empirical evidence to suit an agenda.

Apparently science is "just information". Good. I'm glad we got that resolved then.

My somewhat flippant response, was to write the following story. I hope It's not to complicated for the intended readership. :)

A man went skiing. On his first day in the resort he fell badly. His arm hurt, so he went to see the doctor. The doctor examined the patient's arm. It appeared to be broken, but she sent him to get an x-ray to be sure. The patient went to see the radiologist, who took a number of x-rays, from different angles. The radiologist gave the x-rays to the doctor, and sure enough, although a couple of the x-rays were not clear, the others clearly showed a break in the bone. The doctor considered treatment, and weighed up the options - the nearest hospital was some way away, the cost of an operation could be expensive, and it might be enough simply to splint the arm in the surgery, and arrange for him to be operated on after his return home. She consulted with the radiologist on the severity of the break (the radiologist was not a doctor, but was very experienced, and had seen many similar breaks before).

The doctor was about to give her recommendation, when the door burst open, and an angry looking man marched into the consulting room.
"Stop!" he yelled to the three of them. He grabbed hold of the prescription and tore it into pieces. "What the hell do you think you're doing?" he demanded of the injured man. "Surely you're not going to follow the orders of these two cranks?. What of the spirit of the enlightenment, every man's duty of liberal skeptical enquiry?. I hope that you're not considering blindly following the orthodoxy of the establishment?"
"Well," said the injured man "it did seem pretty clear cut."
"CLEAR CUT???" the skeptic bellowed "What's clear cut about it??"
"Umm the x-rays? "proffered the patient.
"That's exactly what they want you to think" he cried. "Who built the x-ray machines, hmm? And who paid for them? Yes? You see? If the x-ray machine didn't show any breaks, then both these men would be out of a job, wouldn't they? So it's rather convenient that it shows a break, don't you think. You find what you want to find, and see what you want to see. Look, this x-ray doesn't show anything at all"
"Umm that's not an xray, that's my mousepad" interjected the doctor.
"EXACTLY! You see the level of deception we're dealing with here?!" cried the skeptic, wagging his finger in the doctors face. "You really want to trust these people with you health??"
"But what should I do then?" Asked the bewildered patient? "
"Continue doing what you were doing before, of course. Get back up to the top of the mountain and ski, ski like you've never skied before. If fact, why not extend your holiday by a few weeks? Embrace life."
"But what if it really is broken, won't that cause more problems in the long term?"
"Look, in the highly unlikely event that there is some sort of break, a few weeks or years won't make much of a difference anyway. And in the future they'll have all sorts of solutions you can't even begin to imagine now. Amazing scientists and inventors and doctors - much better than these two cretins here - will have invented all sorts of amazing things. They'll probably be able to give you a whole new arm. Made of metal. With extra attachments for opening tins and making tea and everything. What matters now isn't your arm - it's YOU, your HUMANITY!"

With that, before the doctor and radiologist could say a thing, he whisked him out of the surgery, and bundled him into a taxi back to his hotel.

As he waved him off the doctor stepped outside. "Just one question" she asked the skeptic. "Who, exactly, are you?"

Leaning over to her, he put his lips to her ear and whispered:

"I'm the resort manager", before stepping into a large black car and driving off.